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Scott Mackie

Scott Mackie
Senior Loan Officer
NMLS# 250148
GA License# 26180
1000 Mansell Exchange W, Bldg. 200, Ste. 270
Alpharetta, GA 30022
Office: 678.495.2811
Mobile: 678.230.9390
Fax: 678.922.2725

Supreme Lending

For the week of May 7, 2012 – Vol. 10, Issue 19

>> Market Update 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK..."One person with a belief is equal to a force of 99 who have only interests." --John Stuart Mill, British philosopher and political economist

... Happily, it's becoming easier to believe the housing market is turning around, although in fits and starts. For example, the Q1 Advanced GDP report showed that home building increased for the period at a 19% annual rate, its fourth consecutive quarterly gain. In line with this, several home builders have recently reported higher sales and orders. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) projects new home sales UP 31.6% for 2012.

More evidence: as of March, put the median list price of homes up 5.56% for the year. The NAR's chief economist offered, "The housing market has clearly turned the corner. Rising sales are bringing down inventory and creating much more balanced conditions around the country, which means home prices will be rising in more areas as the year progresses." The NAR forecasts existing home sales UP nearly 10% for 2012, to 4.68 million units.

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK... Tech companies say it's better to ship a product sooner even if it has a few bugs. So when your new service or marketing effort is good enough to go, launch it!

>> Review of Last Week

A DOWNER... The broad S&P 500 stock index sank 2.4%, its worst weekly loss of the year and worst performance since mid-December. Friday the Nasdaq saw its worst one-day and weekly loss since late November. The culprit was the April jobs report, with just 115,000 nonfarm jobs added. But the two prior months were revised higher, so there was something for the bulls as well as the bears. The unemployment rate dropped to 8.1%, although, siding with the bears, many economists pointed out this was because more people gave up looking for work.

Other data also revealed a mixed picture. ISM Manufacturing surprised to the upside, but ISM Non-Manufacturing was lower than expected, although both were still just over the line showing growth. Personal spending in March was up at a slower clip than expected, but personal income came in stronger. Spending is up 4% and income is up 3.2% for the year. Core PCE Prices were up 0.2% for the month, so inflation remains within the Fed's target range.

For the week, the Dow ended down 1.4%, at 13038; the S&P 500 closed down 2.4%, to 1369; and the Nasdaq went down 3.7%, to 2956. 

Unsurprisingly, Friday's worse than expected Employment Report set off a big flight to safety into bonds. The FNMA 3.5% bond we watch finished the week UP .77, at $104.01. National average mortgage rates continued to edge lower according to Freddie Mac's weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Rates for some types of mortgages made new record lows. 

... First quarter home sales closings were the highest for the period in five years. And the boost in first quarter contract signings indicates second quarter sales could be just as good.

>> This Week’s Forecast

QUIET BUT INTERESTING... Not a lot of economic reports this week, but some items of interest. It's expected the Trade Deficit continued to grow in March, meaning we're still buying more from them than they are from us. We'll see if the Federal Budget beats its prior $40 billion+ deficit.

We also want to watch weekly Initial Unemployment Claims, which have been heading back up toward 400,000. Friday we'll have wholesale price inflation in the form of PPI and Core PPI (excludes food and energy). These numbers are expected to remain low, so the Fed can continue its super low rate policy.

>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of May 7 – May 11

 DateTime (ET)ReleaseForConsensusPriorImpact
May 9
10:30Crude Inventories05/05NA2.840MModerate
May 10
08:30Initial Unemployment Claims05/05365K365KModerate
May 10
08:30Continuing Unemployment Claims04/283.288M3.276MModerate
May 10
08:30Trade DeficitMar-$49.9B-$46.0BModerate
May 10
14:00Federal Budget AprNA-$40.4BModerate
May 11
08:30Producer Price Index (PPI)Apr0.0%0.0%Moderate
May 11
08:30Core PPIApr0.2%0.3%Moderate
May 11
09:55Univ. of Michigan Consumer SentimentMay76.276.4Moderate

>> Federal Reserve Watch   

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months... The Fed would have to start raising the Funds Rate if inflation started becoming a problem, but everything appears fine for now. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%

After FOMC meeting on:Consensus
Jun 200%–0.25%
Jul 310%–0.25%
Sep 120%–0.25%

Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on:Consensus
Jun 20     <1%
Jul 31     <1%
Sep 12     <1%

This e-mail is an advertisement for Scott Mackie. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in the newsletter is the property of Supreme Lending and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. It is designed for real estate and other financial professionals only. It is not intended for consumer distribution. The material does not represent the opinion of Supreme Lending. Loan product availability is subject to loan amount and qualification of borrower. Not every applicant qualifies or is eligible for every loan program. Some loan products may not be available in all states. Loan approval, note rate and annual percentage rate are dependent on factors including, but not limited to, credit, collateral, income, assets and overall financial history. Not all applicants will be approved for a loan. All loan programs, terms and annual interest rates are subject to change without notice. CA DOC Residential Mortgage Lending Act License 4130655. Georgia Mortgage Lender License 22114. IL Residential Mortgage License MB.6760323. KS Mortgage Company MC.0001578 MS Mortgage Lender License 3941/2009. OR Mortgage Lending License ML-4265. Virginia Licensed by the Virginia State Corporation Commission, Mortgage Broker/Lender License MC-4099. For all other licenses, visit © 2012 Everett Financial, Inc. dba Supreme Lending (NMLS ID #2129) at 14801 Quorum Dr., #300, Dallas, TX 75254. All rights reserved. NMLS# 250148 | GA License# 26180

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